1Berita English – The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the rainy season in Indonesia will not end quickly despite the El Nino phenomenon.

“BMKG predicts that the rainy season will continue until April 2024 in most parts of Indonesia,” BMKG stated on its Instagram account on Wednesday (10/1).

Earlier, Eddy Hermawan, Senior Researcher at the Climate and Atmospheric Research Center at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), predicted that the rainy season might only last until the end of January.

“The rainy season, which is supposed to be in December, January, and February (DJF), seems like it won’t last until February; the rain should end because El Nino started in May 2023 and will end in May 2024,” he said on Friday (5/1), as quoted by Antara.

He explained that this is related to the presence of the El Nino phenomenon, which he predicts will last until 2024, reducing rainfall despite the dominance of the Asian Monsoon winds, which bring rain and signal the beginning of the rainy season.

“Although El Nino is not strong, there is still an effect of reducing the amount of rainfall entering Indonesia,” he said.

Indeed, BMKG acknowledged that the rainy season arrived late in most areas. However, starting from November 2023, some regions have already entered the rainy season, with the peak occurring in January and February 2024.

As of this week, BMKG continued, 61 percent of the Seasonal Zone (ZOM) areas in Indonesia have entered the rainy season as predicted.

“This rainy season is predicted to peak in January and February 2024, especially in the southern part of Sumatra, most of Java, Bali, parts of Nusa Tenggara, southern Kalimantan, and some areas of Sulawesi,” according to the agency’s statement.

In its climate analysis, BMKG revealed the regions that will experience the peak of rainfall in February.

For example, ZOM Banten DKI 16, which includes South Jakarta (Cilandak, Kebayoran Baru, Mampang Prapatan, Pancoran, Jagakarsa, Pasar Minggu), and East Jakarta (Cipayung, Kramat Jati, Ciracas, Pasar Rebo).

The rainy season starts in the second dekad of November, peaks in February, with the peak-to-normal (monthly) ratio being the same. The length of the rainy season is 19 dekads, meaning it is 2 dekads shorter than usual.

BMKG also explained that the effect of the Asian Monsoon winds, which bring rain, cannot be evenly distributed across all regions of Indonesia due to the geographical diversity.

“The diversity of Indonesia’s morphology, consisting of waters and islands, land, and mountains, causes each region to respond differently to the Asian Monsoon and the rainy season,” it said.

Based on the monthly rainfall predictions for January-April 2024, BMKG also revealed the rainy season conditions in Indonesia. Here are the details:

January Most of Indonesia will still experience high to very high rainfall (300 or more than 500 mm per month).

February Rainfall in Indonesia is predicted to be in the medium to high category (150-500 mm per month), except for the northern part of Sumatra, northern Sulawesi, and northern West Papua, predicted to experience monthly rainfall in the medium category (150-300 mm per month).

March and April Monthly rainfall in Indonesia is predicted to remain in the medium to high category (150-500 mm per month), except for some areas in Nusa Tenggara, which will experience rainfall in the medium category.

This (>150 mm per month) is still considered part of the rainy season according to BMKG’s definition of the season.